Silver Technical Analysis 2011.11.04

Bullish set-up on Silver

Here is an interesting chart of SILVER. I don’t usually watch this chart but this is a set-up that is worth my attention. First of all the $32.73 support level was a previous resistance and this seems to be really strong.

The up-swing in late October retraced about 50% and bounced off the main support ($32.73). The bullish target is set in the $37.81 resistance zone, by projecting the previous up-move from the $32.73 level in the trend direction (up). Moreover, the $37.81 zone is important due to the early august low.

The first target, however, is set by the late October highs, in the $35.40 area.

   

EUR-USD Technical Anlalysis 2011.11.03

EUR-USD is in a coorection up move. The main trend is heading down

The US Dollar strengthen against the Euro at the changing of months, bouncing off the 1,3660 support level.

The peak in the late October at 1,4200 most likely finished a complex a-b-c correction and currently it seems that the price is in a correction move that is developing  wave 2 of a 5 wave down correction.

The resistance zone where we look for a possible reversal is between 1,3850 and 1,4000 and the main target in case this scenario will confirm is in the 1,3370 area. The closest support is set in the 1,3660 area and the lower border of the upward flag developing in present.   

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2011.11.02

Crude Oil set to continue the up-move

Previous analysis on WTI Crude Oil (2011.10.27) predicted a range evolution of price above the $90.00 support level and the closest resistance was established at $94.00 level.

The up trend from the early Octomber still looks strong as the confluence of supports (T1 trend line and 90.00 horizontal level) triggered a bounce towards the first resistance.  The next days are likely to bring new highs on Crude as long as the buyers can keep their bids in this range area.

The range from the 25th of octomber until now seems to be a continuation pattern in the prevailing trend and the possible evolution plotted on the chart sets the main target in the $99,90 area. As the price halted in the $94.00 area we expect this level to act as a support after an eventual break of it.

The first signal of a failure of this move (up) will be the clear break below the $90.00 support level. 

S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2011.11.01

Final up-thrust on S&P

The S&P Daily chart shows that the last three days were nothing but a final up thrust above the main resistance level at $1,262; Yesterday’s price action confirmed that the buyers are exhausted and this could lead both to profit taking and short selling.

The broader picture of the price still defines a bear market as the may highs are intact after a series on lower lows and lower highs created during the may-octomber period.

In the next days we could see a retest of the 1,262 resistance level and the fail to break it will give further confirmation of a larger decline. On medium term, the target for the down side is below the early octomber lows ($1,092 area).

The current support level is set at $1,230; however better strategy for the up coming weeks (or even months) will be to sell the pullbacks (usually 38.2%-61.8% measured from the previous swing). 

DAX Technical Analysis 2011.11.01

Looking for pullbacks to sell

The “good news” regarding the Greece bailout seems to be completely forgotten by investors around the world as the main indices lost around 3% yesterday.

The German DAX index is currently trading around the 5,900 area, creating new lows in today’s session. The rally recovered almost 62% of the may-september decline and also reached the mid march troughs.

The Elliott Wave count is pretty clear, reflecting (the most probable but not for sure) the end of wave 2 and the beginning of wave 3 towards the down side. The slope of the latest decline is steep, confirming the beginning of another wave in the main trend direction (down in our case).

The best strategy from now on is looking for pullbacks to sell, following the short direction. The eventual retracements (up moves) should be reversed in the 38.2%-61.8% zone of the previous swing (down move). 

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Technical Analysis 2011.10.31

Elliott Wave count near completion

I posted the previous DJIA analysis on the 25^th of October, representing the 12,300 main resistance level that was tested in the end of the last week.

The Elliott Wave count seems to be complete for wave 2 as is developed in 3 sub waves ([a]-[b]-[c]). The rally of this month was strong enough to reach the highs area of the current year and this points out the function of wave 2: make the investors to forget about the primary trend direction (bearish in our case).

Even if a wave 3 is expected, the price action in the next days should confirm this possible trend reversal with new lower lows (more easy to see in lower timeframes).  

On a closer look (30 min. chart) wave [c] is formed of 5 waves and it satisfies the condition of an ending wave. However, the close analysis of wave v seems to have only 4 waves up to now, this meaning that the index could move higher on a final up swing, before the primary wave 3 can begin.

Line T1 is very important for the trend, as a future break below it will give extra signal of a reversal. The main support for now are T1 trend line, 11,940 and 11,710 levels.